Allsvenskan · Sweden · Regular Season - 18

IFK Goteborg–IF Elfsborg

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 23 August 2026 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

63'IFK GoteborgS. Larsson (penalty)
90'IF ElfsborgL. Östman

Match statistics

Match statistics
IFK Goteborg		IF Elfsborg
24	Shots	12
6	Shots on target	5
11	Shots inside the box	8
4	Goalkeeper saves	4
9	Corners	5
2	Offsides	1
49%	Possession	51%
424	Passes	456
336	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: IFK Goteborg 1.59 · IF Elfsborg 1.38. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots IFK Goteborg 24 · IF Elfsborg 12; on target 6 and 5.

Referee

M. Al-Hakim→

4.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.7%: “IFK Goteborg to win”. Second comes “IF Elfsborg to win” at 32.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.59 for IFK Goteborg, 1.38 for IF Elfsborg.
The highest double chance value is 73.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,097 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

IFK Goteborg to win41.7%

Draw26.3%

IF Elfsborg to win32.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	16

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — IFK Goteborg win or draw68.0%

12 — any result other than a draw73.7%

X2 — draw or IF Elfsborg win58.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.3%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

IFK Goteborg lead at half-time26.3%

Level at half-time40.8%

IF Elfsborg lead at half-time32.9%

First-half double chance

1X — IFK Goteborg ahead or level67.1%

12 — not level at half-time59.2%

X2 — level or IF Elfsborg ahead73.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1097 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

IFK Goteborg: at least 10Actual: 14
IF Elfsborg: at least 11Actual: 16

Corners

IFK Goteborg: at least 5Actual: 9
IF Elfsborg: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals57.8%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 54.0%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals IFK Goteborg score1.59

Attack: IFK Goteborg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: IF Elfsborg's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.59 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals IF Elfsborg score1.38

Attack: IF Elfsborg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: IFK Goteborg's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.9%2–19.8%1–28.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1097 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 137 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.