Allsvenskan · Sweden · Regular Season - 16

Vasteras SK FK–Djurgardens IF

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Monday, 10 August 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Hitachi Energy Arena, Vasteras

Goals and red cards

24'Vasteras SK FKBonaventure Lendambi (assist: M. Hellisdal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Vasteras SK FK		Djurgardens IF
5	Shots	11
2	Shots on target	5
5	Shots inside the box	8
5	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	7
2	Offsides	2
34%	Possession	66%
320	Passes	612
242	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Vasteras SK FK 1.27 · Djurgardens IF 1.88. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Vasteras SK FK 5 · Djurgardens IF 11; on target 2 and 5.
Djurgardens IF kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

Mohammed Al-Hakim, Sweden→

2.90

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.4%: “Djurgardens IF to win”. Second comes “Vasteras SK FK to win” at 24.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.27 for Vasteras SK FK, 1.88 for Djurgardens IF.
The highest double chance value is 75.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,085 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Vasteras SK FK to win24.4%

Draw24.3%

Djurgardens IF to win51.4%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,338 of 2,543 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,568 of 2,554 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Vasteras SK FK win or draw48.6%

12 — any result other than a draw75.7%

X2 — draw or Djurgardens IF win75.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.3%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Vasteras SK FK lead at half-time12.4%

Level at half-time32.4%

Djurgardens IF lead at half-time55.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Vasteras SK FK ahead or level44.8%

12 — not level at half-time67.6%

X2 — level or Djurgardens IF ahead87.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1085 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Vasteras SK FK: at least 12Actual: 12
Djurgardens IF: at least 11Actual: 14

Corners

Vasteras SK FK: at least 4Actual: 4
Djurgardens IF: at least 5Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals61.9%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 53.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Vasteras SK FK score1.27

Attack: Vasteras SK FK score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Djurgardens IF concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Djurgardens IF score1.88

Attack: Djurgardens IF score above the league average (26% more).

Opponent's defence: Vasteras SK FK's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.88 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.6%1–210.6%0–27.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1085 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 45 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.