Allsvenskan · Sweden · Regular Season - 16

Orgryte IS–AIK Stockholm

3–4

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 8 August 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

13'Orgryte ISN. Christoffersson (assist: T. Sana)
30'AIK StockholmL. Carlstrand (assist: Dino Beširović)
32'Orgryte ISA. Andreasson
74'AIK StockholmSixten Gustafsson
77'Orgryte ISD. Paulson · red card
84'AIK StockholmL. Carlstrand (assist: Kevin Filling)
87'AIK StockholmY. Geiger (assist: L. Carlstrand)
90'Orgryte ISJ. Tibbling (assist: C. Vindehall)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Orgryte IS		AIK Stockholm
8	Shots	18
3	Shots on target	8
8	Shots inside the box	10
4	Goalkeeper saves	0
3	Corners	4
1	Offsides	0
38%	Possession	62%
337	Passes	548
264	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Orgryte IS 1.50 · AIK Stockholm 1.35. On the pitch: 3-4.
Shots Orgryte IS 8 · AIK Stockholm 18; on target 3 and 8.
AIK Stockholm kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

Glenn Nyberg, Sweden→

4.05

yellows per match

0.05

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.8%: “Orgryte IS to win”. Second comes “AIK Stockholm to win” at 33.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.50 for Orgryte IS, 1.35 for AIK Stockholm.
The highest double chance value is 73.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,079 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Orgryte IS to win39.8%

Draw27.0%

AIK Stockholm to win33.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	12

0	Yellow cards	2

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

Orgryte IS lead at half-time29.9%

Level at half-time41.9%

AIK Stockholm lead at half-time28.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Orgryte IS ahead or level71.8%

12 — not level at half-time58.1%

X2 — level or AIK Stockholm ahead70.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1079 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Orgryte IS: at least 11Actual: 9
AIK Stockholm: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

Orgryte IS: at least 4Actual: 3
AIK Stockholm: at least 5Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Orgryte IS score1.50

Attack: Orgryte IS score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AIK Stockholm's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.50 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals AIK Stockholm score1.35

Attack: AIK Stockholm score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Orgryte IS concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.35 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.4%2–19.6%1–28.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.