Allsvenskan · Sweden · Regular Season - 15

BK Hacken–Kalmar FF

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 1 August 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

12'Kalmar FFA. Keita
24'BK HackenH. Hilvenius (assist: M. Rygaard)

Match statistics

Match statistics
BK Hacken		Kalmar FF
10	Shots	12
1	Shots on target	6
7	Shots inside the box	8
5	Goalkeeper saves	0
5	Corners	6
0	Offsides	2
52%	Possession	48%
472	Passes	436
389	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: BK Hacken 1.73 · Kalmar FF 1.22. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots BK Hacken 10 · Kalmar FF 12; on target 1 and 6.

Referee

Mohammed Al-Hakim, Sweden→

2.89

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.9%: “BK Hacken to win”. Second comes “Kalmar FF to win” at 25.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.73 for BK Hacken, 1.22 for Kalmar FF.
The highest double chance value is 74.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,073 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

BK Hacken to win48.9%

Draw25.5%

Kalmar FF to win25.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	14

3	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

Double chance

1X — BK Hacken win or draw74.4%

12 — any result other than a draw74.5%

X2 — draw or Kalmar FF win51.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.5%).

First half

Actual: 1–1

BK Hacken lead at half-time31.9%

Level at half-time38.8%

Kalmar FF lead at half-time29.4%

First-half double chance

1X — BK Hacken ahead or level70.6%

12 — not level at half-time61.2%

X2 — level or Kalmar FF ahead68.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1073 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

BK Hacken: at least 10Actual: 17
Kalmar FF: at least 12Actual: 14

Corners

BK Hacken: at least 5Actual: 5
Kalmar FF: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals57.4%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 53.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals BK Hacken score1.73

Attack: BK Hacken score above the league average (21% more).

Opponent's defence: Kalmar FF's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.73 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Kalmar FF score1.22

Attack: Kalmar FF score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: BK Hacken's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.22 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.6%2–110.5%1–08.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.