Allsvenskan · Sweden · Regular Season - 13

Hammarby FF–Degerfors IF

4–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 19 July 2026 at 14:30
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

40'Hammarby FFP. Abraham
69'Hammarby FFM. Madjed (assist: V. Lind)
73'Hammarby FFT. Tekie (assist: Markus Karlsson)
75'Hammarby FFM. Madjed (assist: P. Abraham)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hammarby FF		Degerfors IF
22	Shots	8
11	Shots on target	1
13	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	7
6	Corners	2
0	Offsides	4
64%	Possession	36%
678	Passes	374
602	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hammarby FF 2.18 · Degerfors IF 0.81. On the pitch: 4-0.
Shots Hammarby FF 22 · Degerfors IF 8; on target 11 and 1.
Hammarby FF kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

Mohammed Al-Hakim, Sweden→

2.95

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 69.4%: “Hammarby FF to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.18 for Hammarby FF, 0.81 for Degerfors IF.
The highest double chance value is 88.9% (1X — Hammarby FF win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,060 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hammarby FF to win69.4%

Draw19.5%

Degerfors IF to win11.1%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	8

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Hammarby FF win or draw88.9%

12 — any result other than a draw80.5%

X2 — draw or Degerfors IF win30.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (19.5%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Hammarby FF lead at half-time58.4%

Level at half-time35.1%

Degerfors IF lead at half-time6.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Hammarby FF ahead or level93.6%

12 — not level at half-time64.9%

X2 — level or Degerfors IF ahead41.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1060 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hammarby FF: at least 10Actual: 11
Degerfors IF: at least 14Actual: 8

Corners

Hammarby FF: at least 5Actual: 6
Degerfors IF: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals58.5%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 53.9%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hammarby FF score2.18

Attack: Hammarby FF score above the league average (26% more).

Opponent's defence: Degerfors IF's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.18 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Degerfors IF score0.81

Attack: Degerfors IF score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Hammarby FF concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.81 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.3%2–110.7%1–010.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1060 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 102 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.