Allsvenskan · Sweden · Regular Season - 12

Mjallby AIF–AIK Stockholm

1–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 11 July 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

74'AIK StockholmV. Andersson (assist: A. Kouame)
90'AIK StockholmA. Helm (assist: V. Andersson)
90'Mjallby AIFA. Youssef

Match statistics

Match statistics
Mjallby AIF		AIK Stockholm
28	Shots	7
7	Shots on target	3
24	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	6
5	Corners	2
1	Offsides	2
61%	Possession	39%
543	Passes	352
449	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Mjallby AIF 1.59 · AIK Stockholm 1.14. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Mjallby AIF 28 · AIK Stockholm 7; on target 7 and 3.
Mjallby AIF kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

Mohammed Al-Hakim, Sweden→

2.92

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.3%: “Mjallby AIF to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.59 for Mjallby AIF, 1.14 for AIK Stockholm.
The highest double chance value is 74.0% (1X — Mjallby AIF win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,049 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Mjallby AIF to win47.3%

Draw26.8%

AIK Stockholm to win26.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,543 of 3,253 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	13

4	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Mjallby AIF lead at half-time44.3%

Level at half-time39.7%

AIK Stockholm lead at half-time16.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Mjallby AIF ahead or level84.0%

12 — not level at half-time60.3%

X2 — level or AIK Stockholm ahead55.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1049 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Mjallby AIF: at least 11Actual: 15
AIK Stockholm: at least 12Actual: 13

Corners

Mjallby AIF: at least 4Actual: 5
AIK Stockholm: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Mjallby AIF score1.59

Attack: Mjallby AIF score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: AIK Stockholm's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.59 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals AIK Stockholm score1.14

Attack: AIK Stockholm score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Mjallby AIF concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.5%2–110.4%1–09.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.