Allsvenskan · Sweden · Regular Season - 11

Kalmar FF–Orgryte IS

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 5 July 2026 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Guldfågeln Arena, Kalmar

Goals and red cards

3'Kalmar FFC. Gustafsson (assist: C. Sagoe Jr)
47'Kalmar FFA. Magashy (assist: C. Sagoe Jr)
84'Kalmar FFR. Jansson (assist: M. Soderback)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Kalmar FF		Orgryte IS
12	Shots	11
3	Shots on target	4
9	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	0
4	Corners	4
3	Offsides	0
56%	Possession	44%
606	Passes	454
534	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Kalmar FF 1.84 · Orgryte IS 1.15. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Kalmar FF 12 · Orgryte IS 11; on target 3 and 4.
Kalmar FF kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Mohammed Al-Hakim, Sweden→

2.97

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.4%: “Kalmar FF to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.84 for Kalmar FF, 1.15 for Orgryte IS.
The highest double chance value is 77.9% (1X — Kalmar FF win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,044 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Kalmar FF to win53.4%

Draw24.5%

Orgryte IS to win22.1%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	13

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Kalmar FF win or draw77.9%

12 — any result other than a draw75.5%

X2 — draw or Orgryte IS win46.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (24.5%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Kalmar FF lead at half-time44.7%

Level at half-time37.6%

Orgryte IS lead at half-time17.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Kalmar FF ahead or level82.3%

12 — not level at half-time62.4%

X2 — level or Orgryte IS ahead55.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1044 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Kalmar FF: at least 10Actual: 6
Orgryte IS: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

Kalmar FF: at least 5Actual: 4
Orgryte IS: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals58.4%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 53.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Kalmar FF score1.84

Attack: Kalmar FF score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Orgryte IS concede 25% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.84 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Orgryte IS score1.15

Attack: Orgryte IS score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Kalmar FF's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.15 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.0%2–110.8%2–08.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1044 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 10 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.