Allsvenskan · Sweden · Regular Season - 15

Gais–Hammarby FF

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 20 May 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

26'GaisR. Niklasson
71'Hammarby FFH. Skoglund · red card
81'GaisS. Salter

Match statistics

Match statistics
Gais		Hammarby FF
16	Shots	17
7	Shots on target	3
11	Shots inside the box	10
3	Goalkeeper saves	5
2	Corners	3
1	Offsides	1
36%	Possession	64%
365	Passes	653
265	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Gais 1.30 · Hammarby FF 1.36. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Gais 16 · Hammarby FF 17; on target 7 and 3.
Hammarby FF kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

Mohammed Al-Hakim, Sweden→

3.00

yellows per match

0.12

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.4%: “Hammarby FF to win”. Second comes “Gais to win” at 34.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.30 for Gais, 1.36 for Hammarby FF.
The highest double chance value is 71.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,024 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Gais to win34.5%

Draw28.1%

Hammarby FF to win37.4%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 1–0

Gais lead at half-time27.5%

Level at half-time43.7%

Hammarby FF lead at half-time28.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Gais ahead or level71.2%

12 — not level at half-time56.3%

X2 — level or Hammarby FF ahead72.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1024 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Gais: at least 14Actual: 16
Hammarby FF: at least 9Actual: 11

Corners

Gais: at least 4Actual: 2
Hammarby FF: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Gais score1.30

Attack: Gais score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hammarby FF concede 28% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.30 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hammarby FF score1.36

Attack: Hammarby FF score above the league average (32% more).

Opponent's defence: Gais concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.36 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%1–29.2%2–18.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.