Allsvenskan · Sweden · Regular Season - 7

AIK Stockholm–Djurgardens IF

2–4

HT 1–3

Kick-off: Sunday, 10 May 2026 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Strawberry Arena, Solna

Goals and red cards

10'Djurgardens IFHampus Finndell
16'Djurgardens IFM. Tenho (assist: B. Hegland)
22'AIK StockholmKevin Filling (assist: Z. Yohanna)
45'Djurgardens IFM. Marques (assist: B. Hegland)
64'AIK StockholmDino Beširović (assist: Á. Csongvai)
86'Djurgardens IFB. Hegland (assist: K. Lien)

Match statistics

Match statistics
AIK Stockholm		Djurgardens IF
14	Shots	19
5	Shots on target	10
9	Shots inside the box	18
6	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	9
3	Offsides	1
57%	Possession	43%
388	Passes	297
309	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: AIK Stockholm 1.25 · Djurgardens IF 1.39. On the pitch: 2-4.
Shots AIK Stockholm 14 · Djurgardens IF 19; on target 5 and 10.
AIK Stockholm kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

M. Al-Hakim→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.3%: “Djurgardens IF to win”. Second comes “AIK Stockholm to win” at 32.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.25 for AIK Stockholm, 1.39 for Djurgardens IF.
The highest double chance value is 71.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,012 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

AIK Stockholm to win32.5%

Draw28.2%

Djurgardens IF to win39.3%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–3

AIK Stockholm lead at half-time16.8%

Level at half-time40.1%

Djurgardens IF lead at half-time43.1%

First-half double chance

1X — AIK Stockholm ahead or level56.9%

12 — not level at half-time59.9%

X2 — level or Djurgardens IF ahead83.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1012 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

AIK Stockholm: at least 12Actual: 12
Djurgardens IF: at least 11Actual: 14

Corners

AIK Stockholm: at least 4Actual: 7
Djurgardens IF: at least 4Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals AIK Stockholm score1.25

Attack: AIK Stockholm score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Djurgardens IF concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.25 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Djurgardens IF score1.39

Attack: Djurgardens IF score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: AIK Stockholm concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.3%1–29.4%0–19.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.