Allsvenskan · Sweden · Regular Season - 6

Malmo FF–Mjallby AIF

2–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 3 May 2026 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Eleda Stadion, Malmö

Goals and red cards

2'Mjallby AIFJ. Bergstrom (assist: Villiam Granath)
49'Mjallby AIFE. Stroud (assist: A. Manneh)
57'Malmo FFT. Ali (assist: S. Haksabanovic)
70'Mjallby AIFJ. Bergstrom (assist: J. Kjaer)
81'Malmo FFS. Haksabanovic (assist: T. Ali)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Malmo FF		Mjallby AIF
21	Shots	11
6	Shots on target	8
14	Shots inside the box	8
5	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	2
1	Offsides	0
52%	Possession	48%
428	Passes	404
349	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Malmo FF 1.46 · Mjallby AIF 1.21. On the pitch: 2-3.
Shots Malmo FF 21 · Mjallby AIF 11; on target 6 and 8.

Referee

Mohammed Al-Hakim, Sweden→

3.06

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.2%: “Malmo FF to win”. Second comes “Mjallby AIF to win” at 30.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.46 for Malmo FF, 1.21 for Mjallby AIF.
The highest double chance value is 72.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,002 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Malmo FF to win42.2%

Draw27.7%

Mjallby AIF to win30.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	16

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Malmo FF lead at half-time36.4%

Level at half-time43.0%

Mjallby AIF lead at half-time20.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Malmo FF ahead or level79.4%

12 — not level at half-time57.0%

X2 — level or Mjallby AIF ahead63.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1002 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Malmo FF: at least 11Actual: 12
Mjallby AIF: at least 11Actual: 16

Corners

Malmo FF: at least 5Actual: 5
Mjallby AIF: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Malmo FF score1.46

Attack: Malmo FF score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: Mjallby AIF concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Mjallby AIF score1.21

Attack: Mjallby AIF score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Malmo FF concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.21 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.0%2–19.8%1–09.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.