Allsvenskan · Sweden · Regular Season - 5

Djurgardens IF–Hammarby FF

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 26 April 2026 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

9'Djurgardens IFK. Lien (assist: Hampus Finndell)
64'Hammarby FFN. Besara (assist: O. Johansson)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Djurgardens IF		Hammarby FF
6	Shots	16
3	Shots on target	4
6	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
1	Corners	2
2	Offsides	4
38%	Possession	62%
326	Passes	541
225	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Djurgardens IF 1.39 · Hammarby FF 1.36. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Djurgardens IF 6 · Hammarby FF 16; on target 3 and 4.
Hammarby FF kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

Glenn Nyberg, Sweden→

4.25

yellows per match

0.06

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.0%: “Djurgardens IF to win”. Second comes “Hammarby FF to win” at 35.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.39 for Djurgardens IF, 1.36 for Hammarby FF.
The highest double chance value is 72.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 992 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Djurgardens IF to win37.0%

Draw27.6%

Hammarby FF to win35.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

20	Fouls	8

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Djurgardens IF lead at half-time27.6%

Level at half-time41.2%

Hammarby FF lead at half-time31.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Djurgardens IF ahead or level68.7%

12 — not level at half-time58.8%

X2 — level or Hammarby FF ahead72.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 992 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Djurgardens IF: at least 12Actual: 20
Hammarby FF: at least 11Actual: 8

Corners

Djurgardens IF: at least 5Actual: 1
Hammarby FF: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Djurgardens IF score1.39

Attack: Djurgardens IF score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hammarby FF concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hammarby FF score1.36

Attack: Hammarby FF score above the league average (28% more).

Opponent's defence: Djurgardens IF concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.36 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.8%2–19.2%1–28.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.