Allsvenskan · Sweden · Regular Season - 3

Degerfors IF–IF Elfsborg

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 17 April 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stora Valla, Degfors

Goals and red cards

52'IF ElfsborgJulius Magnusson

Match statistics

Match statistics
Degerfors IF		IF Elfsborg
11	Shots	6
2	Shots on target	3
5	Shots inside the box	2
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
7	Corners	1
4	Offsides	2
66%	Possession	34%
478	Passes	251
391	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Degerfors IF 1.39 · IF Elfsborg 1.44. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Degerfors IF 11 · IF Elfsborg 6; on target 2 and 3.
Degerfors IF kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

Glenn Nyberg, Sweden→

4.00

yellows per match

0.07

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.6%: “IF Elfsborg to win”. Second comes “Degerfors IF to win” at 35.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.39 for Degerfors IF, 1.44 for IF Elfsborg.
The highest double chance value is 72.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 976 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Degerfors IF to win35.2%

Draw27.2%

IF Elfsborg to win37.6%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	17

5	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Degerfors IF lead at half-time25.4%

Level at half-time44.1%

IF Elfsborg lead at half-time30.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Degerfors IF ahead or level69.5%

12 — not level at half-time55.9%

X2 — level or IF Elfsborg ahead74.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 976 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Degerfors IF: at least 11Actual: 15
IF Elfsborg: at least 12Actual: 17

Corners

Degerfors IF: at least 4Actual: 7
IF Elfsborg: at least 5Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals54.6%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 53.5%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Degerfors IF score1.39

Attack: Degerfors IF score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: IF Elfsborg's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals IF Elfsborg score1.44

Attack: IF Elfsborg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Degerfors IF's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.44 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.5%1–29.3%2–18.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.