Süper Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 6

Adana Demirspor–Alanyaspor

0–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 22 September 2024 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Adana

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

4'AlanyasporHwang Ui-Jo (assist: L. Augusto)
17'AlanyasporHwang Ui-Jo (assist: N. Janvier)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Adana Demirspor		Alanyaspor
9	Shots	13
2	Shots on target	7
2	Shots inside the box	9
5	Goalkeeper saves	2
6	Corners	6
0	Offsides	1
54%	Possession	46%
460	Passes	390
384	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Adana Demirspor 1.59 · Alanyaspor 1.38. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Adana Demirspor 9 · Alanyaspor 13; on target 2 and 7.

Unavailable players

Alanyaspor

L. Augustodoubtful · Muscle Injury

Provider data — may change until the line-ups are announced. Last updated: Saturday, 8 August 2026 at 15:06.

Referee

E. Kargın→

4.93

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.2%: “Alanyaspor to win”. Second comes “Adana Demirspor to win” at 30.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.33 for Adana Demirspor, 1.61 for Alanyaspor.
The highest double chance value is 73.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 743 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Adana Demirspor to win30.4%

Draw26.3%

Alanyaspor to win43.2%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Adana Demirspor lead at half-time17.9%

Level at half-time40.9%

Alanyaspor lead at half-time41.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Adana Demirspor ahead or level58.8%

12 — not level at half-time59.1%

X2 — level or Alanyaspor ahead82.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 742 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Adana Demirspor: at least 11Actual: 9
Alanyaspor: at least 11Actual: 10

Corners

Adana Demirspor: at least 4Actual: 6
Alanyaspor: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Adana Demirspor score1.59

Attack: Adana Demirspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Alanyaspor's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.59 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Alanyaspor score1.38

Attack: Alanyaspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Adana Demirspor's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.9%1–210.0%2–18.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.