Premiership · Scotland · Regular Season - 6

Heart Of Midlothian–Dundee

2–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 6 September 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Tynecastle Park, Edinburgh

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

17'DundeeB. Fink (assist: I. Samuels)
84'Heart Of MidlothianCláudio Braga (penalty)
90+1'DundeeZ. Besir · red card
90+6'Heart Of MidlothianS. Kerjota (assist: J. McPake)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Heart Of Midlothian		Dundee
27	Shots	4
7	Shots on target	1
17	Shots inside the box	2
0	Goalkeeper saves	5
14	Corners	2
1	Offsides	1
55%	Possession	45%
622	Passes	254
525	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Heart Of Midlothian 1.97 · Dundee 0.82. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Heart Of Midlothian 27 · Dundee 4; on target 7 and 1.
Heart Of Midlothian kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

C. Graham→

4.70

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 66.9%: “Heart Of Midlothian to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.21 for Heart Of Midlothian, 0.93 for Dundee.
The highest double chance value is 86.9% (1X — Heart Of Midlothian win or draw).
These values were computed from 896 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Heart Of Midlothian to win66.9%

Draw20.0%

Dundee to win13.1%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	19

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–1

Heart Of Midlothian lead at half-time47.9%

Level at half-time38.5%

Dundee lead at half-time13.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Heart Of Midlothian ahead or level86.5%

12 — not level at half-time61.5%

X2 — level or Dundee ahead52.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 896 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Heart Of Midlothian: at least 11Actual: 11
Dundee: at least 10Actual: 19

Corners

Heart Of Midlothian: at least 5Actual: 14
Dundee: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Heart Of Midlothian score1.97

Attack: Heart Of Midlothian score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Dundee's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.97 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Dundee score0.82

Attack: Dundee score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Heart Of Midlothian concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.82 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.9%2–010.8%1–19.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.