Premiership · Scotland · Regular Season - 6

ST Mirren–Celtic

1–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 5 September 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: The SMISA Stadium, Paisley

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

22'ST MirrenN. Agrafiotis (penalty)
51'CelticL. Scales (assist: B. Nygren)
68'CelticYang Hyun-Jun (assist: C. Durán)

Match statistics

Match statistics
ST Mirren		Celtic
19	Shots	23
6	Shots on target	8
8	Shots inside the box	20
5	Goalkeeper saves	5
6	Corners	10
0	Offsides	2
40%	Possession	60%
354	Passes	528
269	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: ST Mirren 0.93 · Celtic 1.79. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots ST Mirren 19 · Celtic 23; on target 6 and 8.
Celtic kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 67.8%: “Celtic to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.01 for ST Mirren, 2.36 for Celtic.
The highest double chance value is 86.8% (X2 — draw or Celtic win).
These values were computed from 895 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

ST Mirren to win13.2%

Draw19.0%

Celtic to win67.8%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

6	Fouls	15

4	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

ST Mirren lead at half-time17.2%

Level at half-time39.1%

Celtic lead at half-time43.6%

First-half double chance

1X — ST Mirren ahead or level56.4%

12 — not level at half-time60.9%

X2 — level or Celtic ahead82.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 895 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

ST Mirren: at least 10Actual: 6
Celtic: at least 9Actual: 15

Corners

ST Mirren: at least 4Actual: 6
Celtic: at least 5Actual: 10

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals ST Mirren score0.93

Attack: ST Mirren score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Celtic concede 32% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.93 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Celtic score1.79

Attack: Celtic score 52% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: ST Mirren's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.79 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–210.7%0–29.7%1–19.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.