Premiership · Scotland · Regular Season - 6

Dundee Utd–Falkirk

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 5 September 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Tannadice Park, Dundee

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

4'FalkirkJ. Murrell (assist: R. Strain)
90+3'Dundee UtdMichael Forbes (assist: A. Yoro)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Dundee Utd		Falkirk
27	Shots	12
9	Shots on target	4
21	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	8
14	Corners	5
2	Offsides	1
62%	Possession	38%
458	Passes	286
340	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Dundee Utd 1.53 · Falkirk 1.36. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Dundee Utd 27 · Falkirk 12; on target 9 and 4.
Dundee Utd kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.2%: “Dundee Utd to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.68 for Dundee Utd, 1.20 for Falkirk.
The highest double chance value is 74.1% (1X — Dundee Utd win or draw).
These values were computed from 892 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Dundee Utd to win48.2%

Draw25.9%

Falkirk to win25.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

16	Fouls	14

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Dundee Utd lead at half-time35.5%

Level at half-time40.1%

Falkirk lead at half-time24.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Dundee Utd ahead or level75.7%

12 — not level at half-time59.9%

X2 — level or Falkirk ahead64.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 892 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Dundee Utd: at least 11Actual: 16
Falkirk: at least 10Actual: 14

Corners

Dundee Utd: at least 4Actual: 14
Falkirk: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Dundee Utd score1.53

Attack: Dundee Utd score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Falkirk's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.53 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Falkirk score1.36

Attack: Falkirk score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Dundee Utd concede 19% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.36 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.9%2–110.5%1–08.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.