Premiership · Scotland · Regular Season - 6

Rangers–Motherwell

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 5 September 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Ibrox Stadium, Glasgow

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

12'RangersR. Naderi

Match statistics

Match statistics
Rangers		Motherwell
27	Shots	8
6	Shots on target	3
22	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
7	Corners	5
0	Offsides	0
41%	Possession	59%
387	Passes	574
311	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Rangers 1.91 · Motherwell 1.03. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Rangers 27 · Motherwell 8; on target 6 and 3.
Motherwell kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 65.9%: “Rangers to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.25 for Rangers, 1.01 for Motherwell.
The highest double chance value is 85.9% (1X — Rangers win or draw).
These values were computed from 892 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Rangers to win65.9%

Draw20.0%

Motherwell to win14.1%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

7	Fouls	12

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Rangers lead at half-time29.8%

Level at half-time40.8%

Motherwell lead at half-time29.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Rangers ahead or level70.6%

12 — not level at half-time59.2%

X2 — level or Motherwell ahead70.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 892 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Rangers: at least 12Actual: 7
Motherwell: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

Rangers: at least 6Actual: 7
Motherwell: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals64.5%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 56.3%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Rangers score1.91

Attack: Rangers score above the league average (40% more).

Opponent's defence: Motherwell concede 15% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.91 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Motherwell score1.03

Attack: Motherwell score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Rangers concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.03 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.8%2–09.9%1–19.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.