Premiership · Scotland · Regular Season - 5

Dundee–ST Johnstone

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 2 September 2026 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

87'DundeeC. Reilly
90'ST JohnstoneJ. Fowler (assist: M. Tait)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Dundee		ST Johnstone
10	Shots	15
2	Shots on target	3
9	Shots inside the box	9
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	5
0	Offsides	3
48%	Possession	52%
396	Passes	583
297	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Dundee 1.56 · ST Johnstone 1.19. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Dundee 10 · ST Johnstone 15; on target 2 and 3.

Referee

R. Hardie→

4.22

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.7%: “ST Johnstone to win”. Second comes “Dundee to win” at 34.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.34 for Dundee, 1.41 for ST Johnstone.
The highest double chance value is 72.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 886 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Dundee to win34.7%

Draw27.6%

ST Johnstone to win37.7%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	14

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Dundee lead at half-time50.7%

Level at half-time37.6%

ST Johnstone lead at half-time11.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Dundee ahead or level88.3%

12 — not level at half-time62.4%

X2 — level or ST Johnstone ahead49.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 886 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Dundee: at least 9Actual: 16
ST Johnstone: at least 11Actual: 14

Corners

Dundee: at least 5Actual: 2
ST Johnstone: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Dundee score1.56

Attack: Dundee score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: ST Johnstone's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.56 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals ST Johnstone score1.19

Attack: ST Johnstone score below the league average (20% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Dundee's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.19 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%1–29.3%2–18.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.