Premiership · Scotland · Regular Season - 5

Kilmarnock–ST Mirren

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Wednesday, 2 September 2026 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 39%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

4'ST MirrenF. Taylor (assist: N. Agrafiotis)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Kilmarnock		ST Mirren
9	Shots	10
2	Shots on target	1
4	Shots inside the box	7
0	Goalkeeper saves	2
7	Corners	3
2	Offsides	1
43%	Possession	57%
457	Passes	520
370	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Kilmarnock 1.35 · ST Mirren 1.51. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Kilmarnock 9 · ST Mirren 10; on target 2 and 1.
ST Mirren kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

D. Dickinson→

4.44

yellows per match

0.16

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.7%: “ST Mirren to win”. Second comes “Kilmarnock to win” at 35.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.47 for Kilmarnock, 1.55 for ST Mirren.
The highest double chance value is 73.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 886 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Kilmarnock to win35.1%

Draw26.2%

ST Mirren to win38.7%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Kilmarnock win or draw61.3%

12 — any result other than a draw73.8%

X2 — draw or ST Mirren win64.9%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.2%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Kilmarnock lead at half-time26.8%

Level at half-time40.9%

ST Mirren lead at half-time32.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Kilmarnock ahead or level67.7%

12 — not level at half-time59.1%

X2 — level or ST Mirren ahead73.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 886 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Kilmarnock: at least 10Actual: 12
ST Mirren: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

Kilmarnock: at least 4Actual: 7
ST Mirren: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals58.8%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 56.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Kilmarnock score1.35

Attack: Kilmarnock score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: ST Mirren's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.35 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals ST Mirren score1.51

Attack: ST Mirren score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Kilmarnock concede 43% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.51 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.7%1–29.4%2–18.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 886 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 145 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.