Premiership · Scotland · Regular Season - 4

Heart Of Midlothian–ST Johnstone

2–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 29 August 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Tynecastle Park, Edinburgh

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'Heart Of MidlothianJ. Wilson (assist: J. McPake)
39'Heart Of MidlothianE. Alić (own goal)
48'ST JohnstoneR. Paton (assist: S. Stanton)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Heart Of Midlothian		ST Johnstone
16	Shots	9
7	Shots on target	4
9	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	7
8	Corners	4
1	Offsides	1
48%	Possession	52%
427	Passes	485
344	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Heart Of Midlothian 1.99 · ST Johnstone 0.77. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Heart Of Midlothian 16 · ST Johnstone 9; on target 7 and 4.

Referee

R. Lee→

3.00

yellows per match

0.27

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 66.5%: “Heart Of Midlothian to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.99 for Heart Of Midlothian, 0.77 for ST Johnstone.
The highest double chance value is 87.9% (1X — Heart Of Midlothian win or draw).
These values were computed from 880 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Heart Of Midlothian to win66.5%

Draw21.4%

ST Johnstone to win12.1%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	14

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Heart Of Midlothian lead at half-time56.3%

Level at half-time35.5%

ST Johnstone lead at half-time8.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Heart Of Midlothian ahead or level91.8%

12 — not level at half-time64.5%

X2 — level or ST Johnstone ahead43.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 880 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Heart Of Midlothian: at least 10Actual: 11
ST Johnstone: at least 10Actual: 14

Corners

Heart Of Midlothian: at least 5Actual: 8
ST Johnstone: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Heart Of Midlothian score1.99

Attack: Heart Of Midlothian score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: ST Johnstone's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.99 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals ST Johnstone score0.77

Attack: ST Johnstone score below the league average (22% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Heart Of Midlothian concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.77 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–013.0%1–011.9%1–110.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.