Premiership · Scotland · Regular Season - 3

ST Johnstone–Celtic

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 9 September 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: McDiarmid Park, Perth

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

52'CelticM. Baur (assist: H. Hassan)

Match statistics

Match statistics
ST Johnstone		Celtic
9	Shots	15
3	Shots on target	9
6	Shots inside the box	13
8	Goalkeeper saves	3
2	Corners	11
0	Offsides	2
40%	Possession	60%
385	Passes	583
299	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: ST Johnstone 0.90 · Celtic 2.02. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots ST Johnstone 9 · Celtic 15; on target 3 and 9.
Celtic kept the ball more (60%).

Announced lineup

ST Johnstone

Formation: 3-4-2-1 · Manager: S. Valakari

Starting XI

T. Stewardgoalkeeper
C. Diabatedefender
E. Alıçdefender
D. Finlaysondefender
T. Stevenmidfielder
R. McAlearmidfielder
M. Toddmidfielder
J. Campbellmidfielder
J. Holtmidfielder
J. Fowlerforward

Substitutes

D. Schmidt
K. Fotheringham
L. Smith
M. Boyes

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 65.7%: “Celtic to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.96 for ST Johnstone, 2.19 for Celtic.
The highest double chance value is 86.1% (X2 — draw or Celtic win).
These values were computed from 899 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

ST Johnstone to win13.9%

Draw20.4%

Celtic to win65.7%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Celtic

Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: M. O'Neill

Starting XI

S. Johnstonegoalkeeper
D. Murraydefender
L. Scalesdefender
A. Trustydefender
Colby Donovandefender
M. Baurmidfielder
C. McGregormidfielder
S. Tounektimidfielder
O. Sørensenmidfielder
H. Hassanmidfielder
K. Høghforward

Substitutes

A. Oxlade-Chamberlain
B. Nygren
C. Durán
J. Forrest
J. Lotomba
J. van den Berg
K. Tierney
S. Mheuka
V. Sinisalo

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Wednesday, 9 September 2026 at 19:14.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — ST Johnstone win or draw34.3%

12 — any result other than a draw79.6%

X2 — draw or Celtic win86.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (20.4%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

ST Johnstone lead at half-time9.9%

Level at half-time33.7%

Celtic lead at half-time56.4%

First-half double chance

1X — ST Johnstone ahead or level43.6%

12 — not level at half-time66.3%

X2 — level or Celtic ahead90.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 899 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

ST Johnstone: at least 8Actual: 13
Celtic: at least 11Actual: 9

Corners

ST Johnstone: at least 3Actual: 2
Celtic: at least 5Actual: 11

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals62.0%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,139 of 1,798 predictions were correct (63.3%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 56.2%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals ST Johnstone score0.90

Attack: ST Johnstone score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Celtic concede 31% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.90 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Celtic score2.02

Attack: Celtic score 55% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: ST Johnstone's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.02 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–210.9%0–210.4%1–110.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 899 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 109 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.