Premiership · Scotland · Regular Season - 3

Motherwell–Aberdeen

0–4

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Tuesday, 15 September 2026 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Fir Park, Motherwell

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 23%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

38'AberdeenG. Molloy
46'AberdeenC. Ronan (assist: K. Nisbet)
76'AberdeenA. Mouloua (assist: C. Ronan)
87'AberdeenK. Nisbet (assist: M. Müller)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Motherwell		Aberdeen
12	Shots	11
5	Shots on target	4
5	Shots inside the box	7
0	Goalkeeper saves	5
5	Corners	2
1	Offsides	3
69%	Possession	31%
695	Passes	310
609	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Motherwell 1.82 · Aberdeen 0.86. On the pitch: 0-4.
Shots Motherwell 12 · Aberdeen 11; on target 5 and 4.
Motherwell kept the ball more (69%).

Announced lineup

Motherwell

Formation: 4-2-3-1 · Manager: Alfred Johansson

Starting XI

A. Paulsengoalkeeper
M. Emmanueldefender
M. Moormanndefender
J. Girdwood-Reichdefender
T. Sparrowdefender
J. Hodgemidfielder
L. Fadingermidfielder
J. Kangamidfielder
A. Lowrymidfielder
Tawanda Jethro Maswanhisemidfielder
R. Charles-Cookforward

Substitutes

D. Levitt

Referee

The referee for this match hasn't been announced by the data provider yet. We don't guess it.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.9%: “Motherwell to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.76 for Motherwell, 1.13 for Aberdeen.
The highest double chance value is 77.1% (1X — Motherwell win or draw).
These values were computed from 900 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Motherwell to win51.9%

Draw25.2%

Aberdeen to win22.9%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,541 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

Aberdeen

Formation: 5-3-2 · Manager: S. Robinson

Starting XI

M. Müllergoalkeeper
N. Guinness-Walkerdefender
G. Molloydefender
M. Knoesterdefender
L. Mayodefender
C. Caddendefender
C. Ronanmidfielder
A. Aremumidfielder
F. Marshallmidfielder
K. Nisbetforward
T. Olusanyaforward

Substitutes

A. Briedl
A. Mouloua
D. Happe
D. Klein
J. Milne
Lewis Smith
M. Ntelo
S. Armstrong
Tony Yogane

Lineups are announced about an hour before kick-off and can still change until the first whistle. The list is shown exactly as the provider sends it and does not feed the prediction. Last updated: Tuesday, 15 September 2026 at 18:38.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Motherwell win or draw77.1%

12 — any result other than a draw74.8%

X2 — draw or Aberdeen win48.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.2%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Motherwell lead at half-time50.4%

Level at half-time38.8%

Aberdeen lead at half-time10.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Motherwell ahead or level89.1%

12 — not level at half-time61.2%

X2 — level or Aberdeen ahead49.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 900 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Motherwell: at least 10Actual: 7
Aberdeen: at least 13Actual: 12

Corners

Motherwell: at least 4Actual: 5
Aberdeen: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

The 3+ goals prediction is not published for this match.

The model gives a probability below the baseline (56.1%). In backtesting the model's edge in the "fewer goals" direction could not be confirmed; we don't publish an unconfirmed prediction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Motherwell score1.82

Attack: Motherwell score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Aberdeen's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.82 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Aberdeen score0.86

Attack: Aberdeen score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Motherwell's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.86 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.6%2–110.7%1–08.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 900 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 147 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.

Week 3 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this: the bias is only pronounced in the opening week. In this week the model's overall accuracy does not separate from the rest of the season — that is, we found no measurable flaw. The one tendency across all opening weeks is that home wins are called slightly too often (said 43.0%, got 41.9%; n=583).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.