Premiership · Scotland · Regular Season - 1

Aberdeen–Heart Of Midlothian

2–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 1 August 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Pittodrie Stadium, Aberdeen

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 25%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

35'Heart Of MidlothianO. McEntee
90'AberdeenL. Mayo (assist: K. Nisbet)
90'AberdeenK. Nisbet (penalty)
90+3'Heart Of MidlothianS. Findlay · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Aberdeen		Heart Of Midlothian
11	Shots	19
3	Shots on target	4
7	Shots inside the box	12
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	6
3	Offsides	0
51%	Possession	49%
359	Passes	350
272	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Aberdeen 1.09 · Heart Of Midlothian 1.56. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Aberdeen 11 · Heart Of Midlothian 19; on target 3 and 4.

Referee

David Dickinson, Scotland→

4.68

yellows per match

0.27

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.6%: “Heart Of Midlothian to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.09 for Aberdeen, 1.56 for Heart Of Midlothian.
The highest double chance value is 74.8% (X2 — draw or Heart Of Midlothian win).
These values were computed from 869 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Aberdeen to win25.2%

Draw27.2%

Heart Of Midlothian to win47.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	17

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–1

Aberdeen lead at half-time22.2%

Level at half-time43.5%

Heart Of Midlothian lead at half-time34.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Aberdeen ahead or level65.7%

12 — not level at half-time56.5%

X2 — level or Heart Of Midlothian ahead77.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 869 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Aberdeen: at least 12Actual: 10
Heart Of Midlothian: at least 10Actual: 17

Corners

Aberdeen: at least 4Actual: 4
Heart Of Midlothian: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Aberdeen score1.09

Attack: Aberdeen score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Heart Of Midlothian concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.09 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Heart Of Midlothian score1.56

Attack: Heart Of Midlothian score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Aberdeen's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.56 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.8%1–210.3%0–110.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Week 1 of the season. This prediction was computed from previous seasons. Summer transfers, budget changes and squad rebuilds aren't in the ratings yet — the model can only see that a team has been rebuilt once new results come in.

We measured this and we're not hiding it: in the opening week of past seasons the model came in 3.3 points below the accuracy it claimed (n=220) — for the rest of the season it beats its own claim. The tendency points this way, though it is not proof on its own: in the opening week it slightly over-calls home wins (said 42.7%, got 39.5%) and slightly under-calls draws (said 26.1%, got 28.2%).

This sample is small and not statistically established, which is why we do not correct the model for it. The correction we tried (pulling probabilities toward the league average) didn't win on holdout, so it wasn't added. Read opening-week predictions with a little more caution.