NB I · Hungary · Regular Season - 33

Diosgyori VTK–Paks

1–3

HT 0–3

Kick-off: Saturday, 16 May 2026 at 15:15
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

1'PaksJ. Hahn (assist: M. Zeke)
18'PaksG. Gyurkits
31'PaksJ. Hahn
90'Diosgyori VTKT. Galantai

Match statistics

Match statistics
Diosgyori VTK		Paks
10	Shots	21
3	Shots on target	8
6	Shots inside the box	12
5	Goalkeeper saves	2
6	Corners	7
0	Offsides	0
52%	Possession	48%
380	Passes	326
280	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Diosgyori VTK 1.22 · Paks 1.99. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Diosgyori VTK 10 · Paks 21; on target 3 and 8.

Referee

B. Berke→

4.28

yellows per match

0.16

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.0%: “Paks to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.22 for Diosgyori VTK, 1.99 for Paks.
The highest double chance value is 78.3% (X2 — draw or Paks win).
These values were computed from 788 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Diosgyori VTK to win21.7%

Draw23.3%

Paks to win55.0%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,651 of 2,775 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	9

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

Double chance

1X — Diosgyori VTK win or draw45.0%

12 — any result other than a draw76.7%

X2 — draw or Paks win78.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (23.3%).

First half

Actual: 0–3

Diosgyori VTK lead at half-time19.7%

Level at half-time40.6%

Paks lead at half-time39.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Diosgyori VTK ahead or level60.4%

12 — not level at half-time59.4%

X2 — level or Paks ahead80.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 788 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Diosgyori VTK: at least 13Actual: 13
Paks: at least 12Actual: 9

Corners

Diosgyori VTK: at least 4Actual: 6
Paks: at least 5Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals63.3%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,726 of 2,749 predictions were correct (62.8%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 55.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Diosgyori VTK score1.22

Attack: Diosgyori VTK score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Paks's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.22 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Paks score1.99

Attack: Paks score above the league average (26% more).

Opponent's defence: Diosgyori VTK concede 22% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.99 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.0%1–210.8%0–28.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.