NB I · Hungary · Regular Season - 32

Kazincbarcikai–Kisvarda FC

2–1

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 2 May 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

Share on X

Goals and red cards

21'KazincbarcikaiG. Szoke
45'KazincbarcikaiZ. Nagy (assist: L. Deutsch)
64'Kisvarda FCS. Novothny (assist: B. Biro)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Kazincbarcikai 1.05 · Kisvarda FC 1.41. On the pitch: 2-1.

Referee

I. Kovacs→

5.07

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.5%: “Kisvarda FC to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.05 for Kazincbarcikai, 1.41 for Kisvarda FC.
The highest double chance value is 73.2% (X2 — draw or Kisvarda FC win).
These values were computed from 782 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Kazincbarcikai to win26.8%

Draw28.7%

Kisvarda FC to win44.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,296 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Kazincbarcikai win or draw55.5%

12 — any result other than a draw71.3%

X2 — draw or Kisvarda FC win73.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (28.7%).

First half

Actual: 2–0

Kazincbarcikai lead at half-time27.3%

Level at half-time42.0%

Kisvarda FC lead at half-time30.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Kazincbarcikai ahead or level69.3%

12 — not level at half-time58.0%

X2 — level or Kisvarda FC ahead72.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 782 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Kazincbarcikai: at least 11
Kisvarda FC: at least 12

Corners

Kazincbarcikai: at least 5
Kisvarda FC: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Kazincbarcikai score1.05

Attack: Kazincbarcikai score below the league average (33% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Kisvarda FC's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Kisvarda FC score1.41

Attack: Kisvarda FC score below the league average (30% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Kazincbarcikai concede 38% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.41 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.6%0–111.2%1–29.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.