NB I · Hungary · Regular Season - 31

Nyiregyhaza–Zalaegerszegi TE

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 April 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

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Goals and red cards

27'NyiregyhazaB. Manner (assist: M. Tijani)
82'NyiregyhazaD. Babunski (assist: B. Olah)
84'Zalaegerszegi TEGuilherme Luiz Teixeira (assist: N. Szendrei)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Nyiregyhaza 1.24 · Zalaegerszegi TE 1.45. On the pitch: 2-1.

Referee

M. Rusz→

4.55

yellows per match

0.36

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.3%: “Zalaegerszegi TE to win”. Second comes “Nyiregyhaza to win” at 31.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.24 for Nyiregyhaza, 1.45 for Zalaegerszegi TE.
The highest double chance value is 72.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 777 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Nyiregyhaza to win31.0%

Draw27.7%

Zalaegerszegi TE to win41.3%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,356 of 5,298 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Nyiregyhaza win or draw58.7%

12 — any result other than a draw72.3%

X2 — draw or Zalaegerszegi TE win69.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.7%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Nyiregyhaza lead at half-time23.7%

Level at half-time43.8%

Zalaegerszegi TE lead at half-time32.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Nyiregyhaza ahead or level67.5%

12 — not level at half-time56.2%

X2 — level or Zalaegerszegi TE ahead76.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 777 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Nyiregyhaza: at least 12
Zalaegerszegi TE: at least 11

Corners

Nyiregyhaza: at least 5
Zalaegerszegi TE: at least 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Nyiregyhaza score1.24

Attack: Nyiregyhaza score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Zalaegerszegi TE concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Zalaegerszegi TE score1.45

Attack: Zalaegerszegi TE score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Nyiregyhaza's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.45 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.0%1–29.7%0–18.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.