NB I · Hungary · Regular Season - 31

Puskas Academy–Ujpest

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 April 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

13'Puskas AcademyA. Markgraf (assist: Laros Duarte)
55'Puskas AcademyR. Szolnoki (assist: Laros Duarte)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Puskas Academy		Ujpest
22	Shots	11
9	Shots on target	6
15	Shots inside the box	8
6	Goalkeeper saves	6
5	Corners	4
4	Offsides	3
35%	Possession	65%
222	Passes	449
161	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Puskas Academy 1.63 · Ujpest 1.25. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Puskas Academy 22 · Ujpest 11; on target 9 and 6.
Ujpest kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

B. Berke→

4.30

yellows per match

0.16

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.5%: “Puskas Academy to win”. Second comes “Ujpest to win” at 28.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.63 for Puskas Academy, 1.25 for Ujpest.
The highest double chance value is 73.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 776 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Puskas Academy to win45.5%

Draw26.3%

Ujpest to win28.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,392 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

23	Fouls	8

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Puskas Academy lead at half-time26.3%

Level at half-time41.9%

Ujpest lead at half-time31.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Puskas Academy ahead or level68.2%

12 — not level at half-time58.1%

X2 — level or Ujpest ahead73.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 776 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Puskas Academy: at least 14Actual: 23
Ujpest: at least 10Actual: 8

Corners

Puskas Academy: at least 5Actual: 5
Ujpest: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Puskas Academy score1.63

Attack: Puskas Academy score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ujpest's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.63 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ujpest score1.25

Attack: Ujpest score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Puskas Academy's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.25 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.1%2–110.2%1–08.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.