NB I · Hungary · Regular Season - 30

Gyori ETO FC–Ferencvarosi TC

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 19 April 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

82'Gyori ETO FCK. Banati (assist: N. Njie)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Gyori ETO FC		Ferencvarosi TC
13	Shots	16
4	Shots on target	8
10	Shots inside the box	14
8	Goalkeeper saves	3
6	Corners	6
5	Offsides	4
52%	Possession	48%
361	Passes	332
268	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Gyori ETO FC 1.35 · Ferencvarosi TC 1.37. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Gyori ETO FC 13 · Ferencvarosi TC 16; on target 4 and 8.

Referee

B. Berke→

4.24

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.5%: “Ferencvarosi TC to win”. Second comes “Gyori ETO FC to win” at 35.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.35 for Gyori ETO FC, 1.37 for Ferencvarosi TC.
The highest double chance value is 72.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 773 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Gyori ETO FC to win35.8%

Draw27.8%

Ferencvarosi TC to win36.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

4	Fouls	15

4	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

Double chance

1X — Gyori ETO FC win or draw63.5%

12 — any result other than a draw72.2%

X2 — draw or Ferencvarosi TC win64.2%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.8%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Gyori ETO FC lead at half-time28.6%

Level at half-time44.0%

Ferencvarosi TC lead at half-time27.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Gyori ETO FC ahead or level72.6%

12 — not level at half-time56.0%

X2 — level or Ferencvarosi TC ahead71.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 773 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Gyori ETO FC: at least 12Actual: 4
Ferencvarosi TC: at least 12Actual: 15

Corners

Gyori ETO FC: at least 4Actual: 6
Ferencvarosi TC: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Gyori ETO FC score1.35

Attack: Gyori ETO FC score above the league average (25% more).

Opponent's defence: Ferencvarosi TC concede 34% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.35 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ferencvarosi TC score1.37

Attack: Ferencvarosi TC score above the league average (41% more).

Opponent's defence: Gyori ETO FC concede 32% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.37 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–114.0%1–29.1%2–19.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.