NB I · Hungary · Regular Season - 30

Zalaegerszegi TE–Kazincbarcikai

4–0

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 18 April 2026 at 12:15
Status: Match Finished
Venue: ZTE-Aréna, Zalaegerszeg

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Goals and red cards

13'Zalaegerszegi TEDaniel Lima (assist: A. Victory)
41'Zalaegerszegi TEA. Skribek (assist: Joao Victor)
43'KazincbarcikaiZ. Nagy · red card
45'Zalaegerszegi TEN. Szendrei (penalty)
56'Zalaegerszegi TEB. Kiss (assist: L. Alfonso)

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Zalaegerszegi TE 1.91 · Kazincbarcikai 0.84. On the pitch: 4-0.

Referee

I. Kovacs→

5.12

yellows per match

0.22

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 62.7%: “Zalaegerszegi TE to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.91 for Zalaegerszegi TE, 0.84 for Kazincbarcikai.
The highest double chance value is 85.5% (1X — Zalaegerszegi TE win or draw).
These values were computed from 769 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Zalaegerszegi TE to win62.7%

Draw22.8%

Kazincbarcikai to win14.5%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,246 of 1,994 predictions were correct (62.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Zalaegerszegi TE win or draw85.5%

12 — any result other than a draw77.2%

X2 — draw or Kazincbarcikai win37.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (22.8%).

First half

Actual: 3–0

Zalaegerszegi TE lead at half-time29.4%

Level at half-time45.5%

Kazincbarcikai lead at half-time25.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Zalaegerszegi TE ahead or level74.9%

12 — not level at half-time54.5%

X2 — level or Kazincbarcikai ahead70.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 769 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Zalaegerszegi TE: at least 11
Kazincbarcikai: at least 12

Corners

Zalaegerszegi TE: at least 4
Kazincbarcikai: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Zalaegerszegi TE score1.91

Attack: Zalaegerszegi TE score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Kazincbarcikai concede 38% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.91 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Kazincbarcikai score0.84

Attack: Kazincbarcikai score below the league average (27% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Zalaegerszegi TE concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.84 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–011.9%1–111.6%1–011.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.