NB I · Hungary · Regular Season - 26

Ferencvarosi TC–Puskas Academy

2–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Tuesday, 14 April 2026 at 16:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Groupama Aréna, Budapest

Goals and red cards

34'Puskas AcademyD. Lukacs
39'Ferencvarosi TCL. Joseph
45'Ferencvarosi TCG. Kanichowsky (assist: C. O'Dowda)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ferencvarosi TC		Puskas Academy
10	Shots	7
6	Shots on target	4
7	Shots inside the box	5
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
3	Corners	5
1	Offsides	2
65%	Possession	35%
482	Passes	255
407	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ferencvarosi TC 2.02 · Puskas Academy 0.91. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Ferencvarosi TC 10 · Puskas Academy 7; on target 6 and 4.
Ferencvarosi TC kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

M. Rusz→

4.60

yellows per match

0.40

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 63.5%: “Ferencvarosi TC to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.02 for Ferencvarosi TC, 0.91 for Puskas Academy.
The highest double chance value is 85.4% (1X — Ferencvarosi TC win or draw).
These values were computed from 767 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ferencvarosi TC to win63.5%

Draw21.9%

Puskas Academy to win14.6%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,246 of 1,994 predictions were correct (62.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	27

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

Ferencvarosi TC lead at half-time42.7%

Level at half-time41.0%

Puskas Academy lead at half-time16.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Ferencvarosi TC ahead or level83.7%

12 — not level at half-time59.0%

X2 — level or Puskas Academy ahead57.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 767 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ferencvarosi TC: at least 10Actual: 12
Puskas Academy: at least 16Actual: 27

Corners

Ferencvarosi TC: at least 6Actual: 3
Puskas Academy: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ferencvarosi TC score2.02

Attack: Ferencvarosi TC score above the league average (43% more).

Opponent's defence: Puskas Academy's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.02 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Puskas Academy score0.91

Attack: Puskas Academy score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ferencvarosi TC concede 32% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.91 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–011.2%1–111.0%2–111.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.