NB I · Hungary · Regular Season - 29

Kisvarda FC–Debreceni VSC

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Monday, 13 April 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

Match statistics

Match statistics
Kisvarda FC		Debreceni VSC
9	Shots	12
1	Shots on target	2
4	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
1	Corners	5
3	Offsides	1
49%	Possession	51%
416	Passes	437
328	Accurate passes	328
16	Fouls	13
2	Yellow cards

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Kisvarda FC 1.20 · Debreceni VSC 1.37. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Kisvarda FC 9 · Debreceni VSC 12; on target 1 and 2.

Referee

B. Berke→

4.26

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.9%: “Debreceni VSC to win”. Second comes “Kisvarda FC to win” at 31.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.20 for Kisvarda FC, 1.37 for Debreceni VSC.
The highest double chance value is 71.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 766 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Kisvarda FC to win31.5%

Draw28.6%

Debreceni VSC to win39.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,642 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Kisvarda FC lead at half-time24.1%

Level at half-time43.2%

Debreceni VSC lead at half-time32.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Kisvarda FC ahead or level67.3%

12 — not level at half-time56.8%

X2 — level or Debreceni VSC ahead75.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 766 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Kisvarda FC: at least 12Actual: 16
Debreceni VSC: at least 12Actual: 13

Corners

Kisvarda FC: at least 4Actual: 1
Debreceni VSC: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Kisvarda FC score1.20

Attack: Kisvarda FC score below the league average (24% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Debreceni VSC's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Debreceni VSC score1.37

Attack: Debreceni VSC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Kisvarda FC's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.5%0–19.6%1–29.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.