NB I · Hungary · Regular Season - 27

MTK Budapest–Paks

0–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Friday, 20 March 2026 at 19:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

32'PaksA. Szendrei (assist: K. Papp)
83'PaksD. Bode (assist: B. Toth)

Match statistics

Match statistics
MTK Budapest		Paks
13	Shots	7
6	Shots on target	2
12	Shots inside the box	6
0	Goalkeeper saves	6
6	Corners	3
0	Offsides	2
56%	Possession	44%
446	Passes	337
349	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: MTK Budapest 1.50 · Paks 2.00. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots MTK Budapest 13 · Paks 7; on target 6 and 2.
MTK Budapest kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

B. Berke→

4.29

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.2%: “Paks to win”. Second comes “MTK Budapest to win” at 27.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.50 for MTK Budapest, 2.00 for Paks.
The highest double chance value is 76.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 749 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

MTK Budapest to win27.5%

Draw23.3%

Paks to win49.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,392 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

Double chance

1X — MTK Budapest win or draw50.8%

12 — any result other than a draw76.7%

X2 — draw or Paks win72.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (23.3%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

MTK Budapest lead at half-time15.0%

Level at half-time38.1%

Paks lead at half-time46.9%

First-half double chance

1X — MTK Budapest ahead or level53.1%

12 — not level at half-time61.9%

X2 — level or Paks ahead85.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 749 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

MTK Budapest: at least 12Actual: 15
Paks: at least 13Actual: 14

Corners

MTK Budapest: at least 4Actual: 6
Paks: at least 5Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals69.2%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 969 of 1,384 predictions were correct (70.0%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 55.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals MTK Budapest score1.50

Attack: MTK Budapest score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Paks's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.50 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Paks score2.00

Attack: Paks score above the league average (30% more).

Opponent's defence: MTK Budapest concede 27% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.00 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–110.1%1–210.0%2–27.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.