NB I · Hungary · Regular Season - 22

MTK Budapest–Puskas Academy

2–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 14 February 2026 at 13:45
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

15'Puskas AcademyZ. Nagy (penalty)
35'Puskas AcademyZ. Nagy (penalty)
60'MTK BudapestA. Zeljkovic (assist: G. Jurek)
80'MTK BudapestB. Varju (assist: I. Bognar)

Match statistics

Match statistics
MTK Budapest		Puskas Academy
15	Shots	8
6	Shots on target	3
8	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
3	Corners	1
3	Offsides	1
63%	Possession	37%
550	Passes	314
467	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: MTK Budapest 1.52 · Puskas Academy 1.75. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots MTK Budapest 15 · Puskas Academy 8; on target 6 and 3.
MTK Budapest kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

M. Rusz→

4.29

yellows per match

0.43

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.6%: “Puskas Academy to win”. Second comes “MTK Budapest to win” at 32.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.52 for MTK Budapest, 1.75 for Puskas Academy.
The highest double chance value is 75.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 721 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

MTK Budapest to win32.5%

Draw24.9%

Puskas Academy to win42.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,357 of 5,300 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	22

5	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

MTK Budapest lead at half-time25.5%

Level at half-time39.6%

Puskas Academy lead at half-time34.9%

First-half double chance

1X — MTK Budapest ahead or level65.1%

12 — not level at half-time60.4%

X2 — level or Puskas Academy ahead74.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 721 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

MTK Budapest: at least 10Actual: 10
Puskas Academy: at least 14Actual: 22

Corners

MTK Budapest: at least 4Actual: 3
Puskas Academy: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals MTK Budapest score1.52

Attack: MTK Budapest score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: Puskas Academy's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.52 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Puskas Academy score1.75

Attack: Puskas Academy score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: MTK Budapest concede 34% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.75 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.4%1–29.7%2–18.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.