Super Liga · Serbia · Relegation Group - 37

Radnicki 1923–Javor

2–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 24 May 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

23'Radnicki 1923Slobodan Simović (assist: O. Sahli)
45'JavorA. Radonjic (assist: S. Vilotic)
45+2'Radnicki 1923O. Sahli · red card
46'JavorM. Sise
67'Radnicki 1923A. Balde

Match statistics

Match statistics
Radnicki 1923		Javor
13	Shots	5
7	Shots on target	4
9	Shots inside the box	2
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
9	Corners	1
0	Offsides	2
37%	Possession	63%
280	Passes	506
209	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Radnicki 1923 1.51 · Javor 1.02. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Radnicki 1923 13 · Javor 5; on target 7 and 4.
Javor kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

N. Minakovic→

5.09

yellows per match

0.36

reds per match

matches of data

11 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.2%: “Radnicki 1923 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.51 for Radnicki 1923, 1.02 for Javor.
The highest double chance value is 75.9% (1X — Radnicki 1923 win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,072 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Radnicki 1923 to win48.2%

Draw27.7%

Javor to win24.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	13

4	Yellow cards	2

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Radnicki 1923 lead at half-time32.5%

Level at half-time46.4%

Javor lead at half-time21.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Radnicki 1923 ahead or level78.9%

12 — not level at half-time53.6%

X2 — level or Javor ahead67.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1072 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Radnicki 1923: at least 13Actual: 16
Javor: at least 14Actual: 13

Corners

Radnicki 1923: at least 5Actual: 9
Javor: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Radnicki 1923 score1.51

Attack: Radnicki 1923 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Javor's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.51 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Javor score1.02

Attack: Javor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Radnicki 1923's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.02 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.1%1–011.2%2–110.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.