Super Liga · Serbia · Championship Group - 36

OFK Beograd–Vojvodina

1–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 17 May 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

16'VojvodinaL. Randjelovic (assist: Lucas Barros)
62'OFK BeogradJ. Sljivic (penalty)
71'VojvodinaNjegoš Petrović (assist: D. Kokanovic)

Match statistics

Match statistics
OFK Beograd		Vojvodina
12	Shots	12
3	Shots on target	6
8	Shots inside the box	10
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
8	Corners	3
2	Offsides	1
59%	Possession	41%
372	Passes	274
299	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: OFK Beograd 1.17 · Vojvodina 1.45. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots OFK Beograd 12 · Vojvodina 12; on target 3 and 6.
OFK Beograd kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

N. Minakovic→

5.10

yellows per match

0.40

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.8%: “Vojvodina to win”. Second comes “OFK Beograd to win” at 29.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.17 for OFK Beograd, 1.45 for Vojvodina.
The highest double chance value is 72.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,067 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

OFK Beograd to win29.2%

Draw28.0%

Vojvodina to win42.8%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	12

4	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

OFK Beograd lead at half-time30.2%

Level at half-time44.1%

Vojvodina lead at half-time25.7%

First-half double chance

1X — OFK Beograd ahead or level74.3%

12 — not level at half-time55.9%

X2 — level or Vojvodina ahead69.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1067 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

OFK Beograd: at least 12Actual: 16
Vojvodina: at least 14Actual: 12

Corners

OFK Beograd: at least 3Actual: 8
Vojvodina: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals OFK Beograd score1.17

Attack: OFK Beograd score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Vojvodina concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Vojvodina score1.45

Attack: Vojvodina score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: OFK Beograd's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.45 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%1–29.8%0–19.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.