Super Liga · Serbia · Relegation Group - 36

TSC Backa Topola–Radnicki NIS

1–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 16 May 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

-5'TSC Backa TopolaNemanja Jorgić · red card
41'TSC Backa TopolaB. Petrovic (assist: M. Šatara)
61'Radnicki NISIssah Abass (penalty)
76'Radnicki NISIssah Abass

Match statistics

Match statistics
TSC Backa Topola		Radnicki NIS
13	Shots	11
4	Shots on target	3
9	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
8	Corners	3
1	Offsides	2
59%	Possession	41%
409	Passes	287
317	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: TSC Backa Topola 1.51 · Radnicki NIS 1.05. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots TSC Backa Topola 13 · Radnicki NIS 11; on target 4 and 3.
TSC Backa Topola kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

L. Lukic→

2.57

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.5%: “TSC Backa Topola to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.51 for TSC Backa Topola, 1.05 for Radnicki NIS.
The highest double chance value is 75.2% (1X — TSC Backa Topola win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,064 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

TSC Backa Topola to win47.5%

Draw27.7%

Radnicki NIS to win24.8%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,071 of 4,397 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	9

1	Yellow cards	3

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

TSC Backa Topola lead at half-time33.9%

Level at half-time45.0%

Radnicki NIS lead at half-time21.2%

First-half double chance

1X — TSC Backa Topola ahead or level78.8%

12 — not level at half-time55.0%

X2 — level or Radnicki NIS ahead66.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1064 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

TSC Backa Topola: at least 14Actual: 15
Radnicki NIS: at least 13Actual: 9

Corners

TSC Backa Topola: at least 4Actual: 8
Radnicki NIS: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals TSC Backa Topola score1.51

Attack: TSC Backa Topola score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Radnicki NIS's defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.51 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Radnicki NIS score1.05

Attack: Radnicki NIS score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: TSC Backa Topola's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.1%1–010.9%2–110.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.