Super Liga · Serbia · Relegation Group - 36

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV–IMT Novi Beograd

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 16 May 2026 at 18:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Gradski stadion, Subotica

Goals and red cards

7'IMT Novi BeogradRafael Juninho (assist: I. Casas)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV		IMT Novi Beograd
10	Shots	6
4	Shots on target	4
6	Shots inside the box	2
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	2
3	Offsides	3
58%	Possession	42%
449	Passes	326
355	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 1.07 · IMT Novi Beograd 1.52. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 10 · IMT Novi Beograd 6; on target 4 and 4.
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

M. Ilic→

6.29

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.0%: “IMT Novi Beograd to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.07 for FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV, 1.52 for IMT Novi Beograd.
The highest double chance value is 74.6% (X2 — draw or IMT Novi Beograd win).
These values were computed from 1,064 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV to win25.4%

Draw27.6%

IMT Novi Beograd to win47.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,197 of 4,687 predictions were correct (46.9%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	20

3	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV lead at half-time36.6%

Level at half-time44.6%

IMT Novi Beograd lead at half-time18.9%

First-half double chance

1X — FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV ahead or level81.1%

12 — not level at half-time55.4%

X2 — level or IMT Novi Beograd ahead63.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1064 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV: at least 13Actual: 10
IMT Novi Beograd: at least 13Actual: 20

Corners

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV: at least 3Actual: 4
IMT Novi Beograd: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV score1.07

Attack: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV score below the league average (27% fewer).

Opponent's defence: IMT Novi Beograd's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.07 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals IMT Novi Beograd score1.52

Attack: IMT Novi Beograd score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV concede 26% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.52 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.0%0–110.6%1–210.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.