Super Liga · Serbia · Relegation Group - 35

TSC Backa Topola–Javor

6–1

HT 4–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 10 May 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

8'TSC Backa TopolaA. Todoroski (assist: B. Petrovic)
14'TSC Backa TopolaB. Petrovic (assist: D. Savič)
26'JavorH. Toure
42'TSC Backa TopolaD. Savič (assist: A. Todoroski)
45'TSC Backa TopolaD. Savič
46'TSC Backa TopolaR. Bosic
82'TSC Backa TopolaM. Šatara (assist: R. Bosic)

Match statistics

Match statistics
TSC Backa Topola		Javor
21	Shots	12
11	Shots on target	2
14	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
4	Corners	3
0	Offsides	2
57%	Possession	43%
465	Passes	339
394	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: TSC Backa Topola 1.45 · Javor 1.08. On the pitch: 6-1.
Shots TSC Backa Topola 21 · Javor 12; on target 11 and 2.
TSC Backa Topola kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

M. Milanovic→

3.80

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.0%: “TSC Backa Topola to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.45 for TSC Backa Topola, 1.08 for Javor.
The highest double chance value is 73.3% (1X — TSC Backa Topola win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,064 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

TSC Backa Topola to win45.0%

Draw28.2%

Javor to win26.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	7

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 4–1

TSC Backa Topola lead at half-time28.1%

Level at half-time48.3%

Javor lead at half-time23.6%

First-half double chance

1X — TSC Backa Topola ahead or level76.4%

12 — not level at half-time51.7%

X2 — level or Javor ahead71.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1064 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

TSC Backa Topola: at least 13Actual: 15
Javor: at least 13Actual: 7

Corners

TSC Backa Topola: at least 5Actual: 4
Javor: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals TSC Backa Topola score1.45

Attack: TSC Backa Topola score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Javor's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.45 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Javor score1.08

Attack: Javor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: TSC Backa Topola's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.08 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.4%1–010.7%2–19.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.