Super Liga · Serbia · Relegation Group - 35

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV–Napredak

0–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 10 May 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Gradski stadion, Subotica

Goals and red cards

14'NapredakN. Bastajic (assist: U. Sremcevic)
59'NapredakM. Vulić (assist: Uroš Ignjatović)
86'NapredakN. Bogdanovski (assist: V. Miletić)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV		Napredak
10	Shots	14
6	Shots on target	6
4	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	6
3	Corners	3
3	Offsides	1
52%	Possession	48%
450	Passes	416
378	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 1.70 · Napredak 1.05. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 10 · Napredak 14; on target 6 and 6.

Referee

M. Miletic→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 52.4%: “FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.70 for FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV, 1.05 for Napredak.
The highest double chance value is 78.2% (1X — FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,064 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV to win52.4%

Draw25.7%

Napredak to win21.8%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,799 of 3,473 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

20	Fouls	5

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

Double chance

1X — FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV win or draw78.2%

12 — any result other than a draw74.3%

X2 — draw or Napredak win47.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (25.7%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV lead at half-time49.7%

Level at half-time38.7%

Napredak lead at half-time11.6%

First-half double chance

1X — FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV ahead or level88.4%

12 — not level at half-time61.3%

X2 — level or Napredak ahead50.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1064 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV: at least 14Actual: 20
Napredak: at least 12Actual: 5

Corners

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV: at least 4Actual: 3
Napredak: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals52.4%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,683 of 4,996 predictions were correct (53.7%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 52.0%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV score1.70

Attack: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV score below the league average (27% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Napredak concede 56% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.70 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Napredak score1.05

Attack: Napredak score below the league average (31% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV concede 26% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.0%2–110.7%1–010.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.