Super Liga · Serbia · Championship Group - 35

FK Crvena Zvezda–Novi Pazar

1–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 9 May 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 3%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

53'FK Crvena ZvezdaM. Arnautovic (assist: Strahinja Eraković)
75'Novi PazarV. Kotzebue
90'Novi PazarD. Johnson Agwom (assist: D. Sadi)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FK Crvena Zvezda		Novi Pazar
15	Shots	9
3	Shots on target	6
10	Shots inside the box	7
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	3
3	Offsides	1
80%	Possession	20%
720	Passes	172
638	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FK Crvena Zvezda 2.97 · Novi Pazar 0.45. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots FK Crvena Zvezda 15 · Novi Pazar 9; on target 3 and 6.
FK Crvena Zvezda kept the ball more (80%).

Referee

D. Matic→

6.00

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 88.5%: “FK Crvena Zvezda to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 9.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.97 for FK Crvena Zvezda, 0.45 for Novi Pazar.
The highest double chance value is 97.5% (1X — FK Crvena Zvezda win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,062 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FK Crvena Zvezda to win88.5%

Draw9.0%

Novi Pazar to win2.5%

When the model has said 85–90% in the past, 256 of 293 predictions were correct (87.4%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	22

0	Yellow cards	6

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

FK Crvena Zvezda lead at half-time70.8%

Level at half-time26.5%

Novi Pazar lead at half-time2.7%

First-half double chance

1X — FK Crvena Zvezda ahead or level97.3%

12 — not level at half-time73.5%

X2 — level or Novi Pazar ahead29.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1062 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FK Crvena Zvezda: at least 10Actual: 6
Novi Pazar: at least 12Actual: 22

Corners

FK Crvena Zvezda: at least 6Actual: 3
Novi Pazar: at least 2Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FK Crvena Zvezda score2.97

Attack: FK Crvena Zvezda score 117% more than the league's average team — one of the sharpest attacks in the league.

Opponent's defence: Novi Pazar's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.97 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Novi Pazar score0.45

Attack: Novi Pazar score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FK Crvena Zvezda concede 36% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.45 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

3–015.1%2–014.9%4–011.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.