Super Liga · Serbia · Championship Group - 34

Radnik Surdulica–Vojvodina

1–4

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Monday, 4 May 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Stadion FK Radnik, Sudulika

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — only 0.9% between the top two

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

31'VojvodinaU. Filipovic (own goal)
50'Radnik SurdulicaM. Novaković (assist: Emmanuel Quarshie)
61'VojvodinaM. Kolarevic (assist: S. Medojević)
68'VojvodinaM. Vidosavljevic (assist: K. Szűcs)
90'VojvodinaM. Kolarevic (assist: N. Petrović)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Radnik Surdulica		Vojvodina
16	Shots	10
6	Shots on target	6
13	Shots inside the box	5
3	Goalkeeper saves	5
7	Corners	3
1	Offsides	3
57%	Possession	43%
385	Passes	292
290	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Radnik Surdulica 1.21 · Vojvodina 1.23. On the pitch: 1-4.
Shots Radnik Surdulica 16 · Vojvodina 10; on target 6 and 6.
Radnik Surdulica kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

N. Simovic→

3.38

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 35.7%: “Vojvodina to win”. Second comes “Radnik Surdulica to win” at 34.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.21 for Radnik Surdulica, 1.23 for Vojvodina.
The highest double chance value is 70.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,058 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Radnik Surdulica to win34.8%

Draw29.4%

Vojvodina to win35.7%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,638 predictions were correct (37.1%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	17

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Radnik Surdulica lead at half-time31.8%

Level at half-time44.1%

Vojvodina lead at half-time24.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Radnik Surdulica ahead or level75.8%

12 — not level at half-time55.9%

X2 — level or Vojvodina ahead68.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1058 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Radnik Surdulica: at least 14Actual: 11
Vojvodina: at least 13Actual: 17

Corners

Radnik Surdulica: at least 4Actual: 7
Vojvodina: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Radnik Surdulica score1.21

Attack: Radnik Surdulica score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Vojvodina concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.21 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Vojvodina score1.23

Attack: Vojvodina score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Radnik Surdulica concede 15% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.23 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.0%0–19.8%1–09.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.