Super Liga · Serbia · Relegation Group - 34

Radnicki 1923–TSC Backa Topola

2–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 3 May 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

7'Radnicki 1923Slobodan Simović
48'Radnicki 1923E. Sokler
52'TSC Backa TopolaA. Todoroski (assist: D. Savič)
64'TSC Backa TopolaA. Todoroski (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Radnicki 1923		TSC Backa Topola
9	Shots	10
3	Shots on target	3
7	Shots inside the box	7
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
1	Corners	3
1	Offsides	2
48%	Possession	52%
374	Passes	399
282	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Radnicki 1923 1.50 · TSC Backa Topola 1.10. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Radnicki 1923 9 · TSC Backa Topola 10; on target 3 and 3.

Referee

S. Ostracanin→

5.14

yellows per match

0.43

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.8%: “Radnicki 1923 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.50 for Radnicki 1923, 1.10 for TSC Backa Topola.
The highest double chance value is 73.6% (1X — Radnicki 1923 win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,058 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Radnicki 1923 to win45.8%

Draw27.7%

TSC Backa Topola to win26.4%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,070 of 4,392 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	22

4	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Radnicki 1923 lead at half-time35.1%

Level at half-time45.1%

TSC Backa Topola lead at half-time19.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Radnicki 1923 ahead or level80.1%

12 — not level at half-time54.9%

X2 — level or TSC Backa Topola ahead64.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1058 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Radnicki 1923: at least 13Actual: 13
TSC Backa Topola: at least 16Actual: 22

Corners

Radnicki 1923: at least 4Actual: 1
TSC Backa Topola: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Radnicki 1923 score1.50

Attack: Radnicki 1923 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: TSC Backa Topola's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.50 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals TSC Backa Topola score1.10

Attack: TSC Backa Topola score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Radnicki 1923's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.10 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.1%1–010.3%2–110.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.