Super Liga · Serbia · Relegation Group - 34

Mladost Lucani–FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

2–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 3 May 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

32'Mladost LucaniJ. Ciric (assist: N. Boranijasevic)
34'FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRVAleksa Trajković (assist: Ezequiel)
36'Mladost LucaniP. Bojic (assist: N. Boranijasevic)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Mladost Lucani		FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
9	Shots	9
4	Shots on target	3
7	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	3
1	Offsides	3
46%	Possession	54%
418	Passes	501
339	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Mladost Lucani 1.33 · FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 1.11. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Mladost Lucani 9 · FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 9; on target 4 and 3.

Referee

M. Mitic→

3.86

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.7%: “Mladost Lucani to win”. Second comes “FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV to win” at 30.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.33 for Mladost Lucani, 1.11 for FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV.
The highest double chance value is 70.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,058 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Mladost Lucani to win40.7%

Draw29.3%

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV to win30.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,519 of 5,657 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	11

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

Mladost Lucani lead at half-time34.5%

Level at half-time45.2%

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV lead at half-time20.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Mladost Lucani ahead or level79.7%

12 — not level at half-time54.8%

X2 — level or FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV ahead65.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1058 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Mladost Lucani: at least 11Actual: 10
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV: at least 13Actual: 11

Corners

Mladost Lucani: at least 3Actual: 3
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Mladost Lucani score1.33

Attack: Mladost Lucani score below the league average (35% fewer).

Opponent's defence: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV concede 26% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV score1.11

Attack: FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV score below the league average (26% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Mladost Lucani concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.11 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.9%1–010.7%2–19.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.