Super Liga · Serbia · Championship Group - 34

Železničar Pančevo–OFK Beograd

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 2 May 2026 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

37'Železničar PančevoS. PirgiÄ (penalty)
49'Železničar PančevoS. PirgiÄ

Match statistics

Match statistics
Železničar Pančevo		OFK Beograd
10	Shots	7
2	Shots on target	1
7	Shots inside the box	6
0	Goalkeeper saves	0
5	Corners	4
1	Offsides	2
46%	Possession	54%
369	Passes	438
297	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Železničar Pančevo 1.51 · OFK Beograd 1.04. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Železničar Pančevo 10 · OFK Beograd 7; on target 2 and 1.

Referee

S. Jeknic→

3.50

yellows per match

0.17

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.5%: “Železničar Pančevo to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.51 for Železničar Pančevo, 1.04 for OFK Beograd.
The highest double chance value is 75.2% (1X — Železničar Pančevo win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,056 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Železničar Pančevo to win47.5%

Draw27.7%

OFK Beograd to win24.8%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 2,069 of 4,390 predictions were correct (47.1%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Železničar Pančevo lead at half-time38.8%

Level at half-time42.4%

OFK Beograd lead at half-time18.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Železničar Pančevo ahead or level81.3%

12 — not level at half-time57.6%

X2 — level or OFK Beograd ahead61.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1056 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Železničar Pančevo: at least 14Actual: 10
OFK Beograd: at least 13Actual: 11

Corners

Železničar Pančevo: at least 4Actual: 5
OFK Beograd: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Železničar Pančevo score1.51

Attack: Železničar Pančevo score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: OFK Beograd's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.51 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals OFK Beograd score1.04

Attack: OFK Beograd score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Železničar Pančevo's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.1%1–011.0%2–110.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.