Super Liga · Serbia · Relegation Group - 33

TSC Backa Topola–Mladost Lucani

1–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Monday, 27 April 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

21'TSC Backa TopolaR. Bosic
45'Mladost LucaniJ. Ciric
64'Mladost LucaniP. Bojic (assist: J. Ciric)
66'TSC Backa TopolaR. Bosic · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
TSC Backa Topola		Mladost Lucani
23	Shots	12
6	Shots on target	3
16	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
11	Corners	1
0	Offsides	1
65%	Possession	35%
549	Passes	294
456	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: TSC Backa Topola 1.71 · Mladost Lucani 0.82. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots TSC Backa Topola 23 · Mladost Lucani 12; on target 6 and 3.
TSC Backa Topola kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

S. Jovanovic→

3.60

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 58.5%: “TSC Backa Topola to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.71 for TSC Backa Topola, 0.82 for Mladost Lucani.
The highest double chance value is 83.7% (1X — TSC Backa Topola win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,056 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

TSC Backa Topola to win58.5%

Draw25.1%

Mladost Lucani to win16.3%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,652 of 2,776 predictions were correct (59.5%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	13

4	Yellow cards	1

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

TSC Backa Topola lead at half-time33.9%

Level at half-time46.5%

Mladost Lucani lead at half-time19.5%

First-half double chance

1X — TSC Backa Topola ahead or level80.5%

12 — not level at half-time53.5%

X2 — level or Mladost Lucani ahead66.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1056 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

TSC Backa Topola: at least 13Actual: 16
Mladost Lucani: at least 12Actual: 13

Corners

TSC Backa Topola: at least 5Actual: 11
Mladost Lucani: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals TSC Backa Topola score1.71

Attack: TSC Backa Topola score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Mladost Lucani concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.71 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Mladost Lucani score0.82

Attack: Mladost Lucani score below the league average (35% fewer).

Opponent's defence: TSC Backa Topola's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.82 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–013.0%1–112.7%2–012.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.