Super Liga · Serbia · Relegation Group - 32

Radnicki NIS–Javor

3–2

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 23 April 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

14'Radnicki NISR. Milosavljevic · red card
31'JavorIbrahim Tanko · red card
40'Radnicki NISM. Spasić (assist: Issah Abass)
43'Radnicki NISA. Shestyuk (assist: Issah Abass)
49'JavorH. Touré
56'JavorA. Radonjic
60'

Match statistics

Match statistics
Radnicki NIS		Javor
18	Shots	13
7	Shots on target	5
10	Shots inside the box	8
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	4
0	Offsides	0
44%	Possession	56%
341	Passes	436
265	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Radnicki NIS 1.32 · Javor 1.15. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots Radnicki NIS 18 · Javor 13; on target 7 and 5.
Javor kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

P. Ilic→

3.63

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.7%: “Radnicki NIS to win”. Second comes “Javor to win” at 31.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.32 for Radnicki NIS, 1.15 for Javor.
The highest double chance value is 70.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,052 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Radnicki NIS to win39.7%

Draw29.1%

Javor to win31.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 2,090 of 5,642 predictions were correct (37.0%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	5

1	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 2–0

Radnicki NIS lead at half-time27.6%

Level at half-time46.7%

Javor lead at half-time25.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Radnicki NIS ahead or level74.3%

12 — not level at half-time53.3%

X2 — level or Javor ahead72.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1052 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Radnicki NIS: at least 13Actual: 11
Javor: at least 13Actual: 9

Corners

Radnicki NIS: at least 4Actual: 4
Javor: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Radnicki NIS score1.32

Attack: Radnicki NIS score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Javor's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.32 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Javor score1.15

Attack: Javor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Radnicki NIS's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.15 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.8%1–010.3%2–19.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.