Super Liga · Serbia · Championship Group - 32

Vojvodina–FK Partizan

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 22 April 2026 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

79'FK PartizanVukašin Đurđević · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Vojvodina		FK Partizan
11	Shots	7
1	Shots on target	1
3	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
2	Corners	3
3	Offsides	2
43%	Possession	57%
298	Passes	421
229	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Vojvodina 1.57 · FK Partizan 1.31. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Vojvodina 11 · FK Partizan 7; on target 1 and 1.
FK Partizan kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

N. Minakovic→

4.75

yellows per match

0.38

reds per match

matches of data

8 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.9%: “Vojvodina to win”. Second comes “FK Partizan to win” at 30.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.57 for Vojvodina, 1.31 for FK Partizan.
The highest double chance value is 73.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,048 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Vojvodina to win42.9%

Draw26.6%

FK Partizan to win30.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	15

4	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	1

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Vojvodina win or draw69.5%

12 — any result other than a draw73.4%

X2 — draw or FK Partizan win57.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.6%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Vojvodina lead at half-time28.2%

Level at half-time41.2%

FK Partizan lead at half-time30.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Vojvodina ahead or level69.5%

12 — not level at half-time58.8%

X2 — level or FK Partizan ahead71.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1048 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Vojvodina: at least 13Actual: 16
FK Partizan: at least 11Actual: 15

Corners

Vojvodina: at least 5Actual: 2
FK Partizan: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals55.8%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 52.1%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Vojvodina score1.57

Attack: Vojvodina score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: FK Partizan's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.57 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FK Partizan score1.31

Attack: FK Partizan score above the league average (30% more).

Opponent's defence: Vojvodina's defence is close to the league average (0.85×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.2%2–110.0%1–28.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1048 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 142 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.