Super Liga · Serbia · Relegation Group - 31

Radnicki 1923–Radnicki NIS

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 19 April 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

11'Radnicki 1923O. Sahli (assist: Bojan Kovačević)
48'Radnicki NISM. Spasić (assist: R. Milosavljevic)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Radnicki 1923		Radnicki NIS
13	Shots	8
4	Shots on target	3
9	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	1
1	Offsides	1
56%	Possession	44%
361	Passes	280
284	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Radnicki 1923 1.57 · Radnicki NIS 1.00. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Radnicki 1923 13 · Radnicki NIS 8; on target 4 and 3.
Radnicki 1923 kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

S. Jovanovic→

3.44

yellows per match

0.11

reds per match

matches of data

9 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.1%: “Radnicki 1923 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.57 for Radnicki 1923, 1.00 for Radnicki NIS.
The highest double chance value is 77.2% (1X — Radnicki 1923 win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,048 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Radnicki 1923 to win50.1%

Draw27.1%

Radnicki NIS to win22.8%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,798 of 3,471 predictions were correct (51.8%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	20

0	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Radnicki 1923 lead at half-time39.2%

Level at half-time42.7%

Radnicki NIS lead at half-time18.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Radnicki 1923 ahead or level81.9%

12 — not level at half-time57.3%

X2 — level or Radnicki NIS ahead60.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1048 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Radnicki 1923: at least 13Actual: 13
Radnicki NIS: at least 15Actual: 20

Corners

Radnicki 1923: at least 4Actual: 4
Radnicki NIS: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Radnicki 1923 score1.57

Attack: Radnicki 1923 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Radnicki NIS's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.57 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Radnicki NIS score1.00

Attack: Radnicki NIS score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Radnicki 1923's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.00 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.8%1–011.2%2–110.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.