Super Liga · Serbia · Relegation Group - 31

TSC Backa Topola–Napredak

4–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 19 April 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

2'TSC Backa TopolaA. Todoroski (assist: Stefan Jovanović)
15'TSC Backa TopolaB. Petrovic (assist: R. Bosic)
42'NapredakM. Vulić (assist: D. Bojat)
78'TSC Backa TopolaD. Savič (assist: Saša Jovanović)
85'TSC Backa TopolaR. Bosic (assist: M. Milosavic)

Match statistics

Match statistics
TSC Backa Topola		Napredak
19	Shots	6
7	Shots on target	2
15	Shots inside the box	3
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	2
2	Offsides	1
53%	Possession	47%
380	Passes	345
312	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: TSC Backa Topola 2.12 · Napredak 0.76. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots TSC Backa Topola 19 · Napredak 6; on target 7 and 2.

Referee

M. Mitic→

3.60

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 69.2%: “TSC Backa Topola to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 19.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.12 for TSC Backa Topola, 0.76 for Napredak.
The highest double chance value is 89.1% (1X — TSC Backa Topola win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,048 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

TSC Backa Topola to win69.2%

Draw19.9%

Napredak to win10.9%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 1,092 of 1,602 predictions were correct (68.2%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	11

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

TSC Backa Topola lead at half-time55.1%

Level at half-time37.0%

Napredak lead at half-time7.9%

First-half double chance

1X — TSC Backa Topola ahead or level92.1%

12 — not level at half-time63.0%

X2 — level or Napredak ahead44.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1048 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

TSC Backa Topola: at least 15Actual: 17
Napredak: at least 12Actual: 11

Corners

TSC Backa Topola: at least 5Actual: 5
Napredak: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals TSC Backa Topola score2.12

Attack: TSC Backa Topola score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Napredak concede 53% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.12 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Napredak score0.76

Attack: Napredak score below the league average (31% fewer).

Opponent's defence: TSC Backa Topola's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.76 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–013.0%1–011.1%2–110.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.