Super Liga · Serbia · Championship Group - 31

Cukaricki–Radnik Surdulica

2–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 18 April 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

26'Radnik SurdulicaM. Novaković
70'CukarickiS. Randjelovic (own goal)
88'CukarickiSlobodan Tedić (penalty)
90'Radnik SurdulicaL. Zoric

Match statistics

Match statistics
Cukaricki		Radnik Surdulica
9	Shots	6
4	Shots on target	3
7	Shots inside the box	2
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	6
1	Offsides	1
49%	Possession	51%
314	Passes	334
239	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Cukaricki 1.34 · Radnik Surdulica 1.09. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Cukaricki 9 · Radnik Surdulica 6; on target 4 and 3.

Referee

D. Matic→

6.00

yellows per match

0.40

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.7%: “Cukaricki to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.34 for Cukaricki, 1.09 for Radnik Surdulica.
The highest double chance value is 70.9% (1X — Cukaricki win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,044 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Cukaricki to win41.7%

Draw29.2%

Radnik Surdulica to win29.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 2,357 of 5,300 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

19	Fouls	17

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Cukaricki lead at half-time38.3%

Level at half-time41.1%

Radnik Surdulica lead at half-time20.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Cukaricki ahead or level79.4%

12 — not level at half-time58.9%

X2 — level or Radnik Surdulica ahead61.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1044 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Cukaricki: at least 14Actual: 19
Radnik Surdulica: at least 14Actual: 17

Corners

Cukaricki: at least 3Actual: 5
Radnik Surdulica: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Cukaricki score1.34

Attack: Cukaricki score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Radnik Surdulica concede 15% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Radnik Surdulica score1.09

Attack: Radnik Surdulica score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Cukaricki's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.09 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.8%1–010.9%2–19.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.